Signs From Earth Notes

Dennis Dimick's posterous 

Climate.gov: Web portal for new NOAA climate service (via @nytimes & @postgreen)

Screenshot of new government website page for data and services: From: http://www.climate.gov/#Data_And_services

New York Times: Federal Climate Service Is Created to Aid New Businesses (via @nytimes)
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/09/business/energy-environment/09noaa.html

John Broder: "...The new unit, to be known as the NOAA Climate Service, will assemble the roughly 550 scientists and analysts already working on the issue at the agency into a cohesive group under a single leader.

"The climate service is designed to be analogous to the National Weather Service, also part of NOAA, which celebrates its 140th birthday this month. ..."

Washington Post: US Proposes new climate service (via @postgreen)

Juliet Eilperin: "...The move is essentially a reorganization of NOAA, and would bring the agency's climate research arm together with its more consumer-oriented services. It would not come with a boost in funding...."

(Washington) Post Carbon: New Climate Portal Launches

NOAA PR: Commerce Department Proposes Establishment of NOAA Climate Service

Website for NOAA Climate Service

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Climate Change: Main Impact Will be on Water Supplies (via @reuters)

http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USTRE61615G20100207

Oslo - "The main impact of climate change will be on water supplies and the world needs to learn from past cooperation such as over the Indus or Mekong Rivers to help avert future conflicts, experts said on Sunday.

"Desertification, flash floods, melting glaciers, heatwaves, cyclones or water-borne diseases such as cholera are among the impacts of global warming inextricably tied to water. And competition for supplies might cause conflicts. "The main manifestations of rising temperatures...are about water," said Zafar Adeel, chair of UN-Water which coordinates work on water among 26 U.N. agencies...."

UN-Water
http://www.unwater.org/flashindex.html

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Wal-Mart vs. Whole Foods: The Great Grocery Smackdown (via @Atlantic_Online)

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/201003/walmart-local-produce

Corby Kummer: "...I started into how and why Walmart could be plausibly competing with Whole Foods, and found that its produce-buying had evolved beyond organics, to a virtually unknown program--one that could do more to encourage small and medium-size American farms than any number of well-meaning nonprofits, or the U.S. Department of Agriculture, with its new Know Your Farmer, Know Your Food campaign. ..."

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USDA: Know Your Farmer Know Your Food
http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/knowyourfarmer?navid=KNOWYOURFARMER

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Our Nitrogen Fix: "The N2 Dilemma: Is America Fertilizing Disaster?" (via @grist @tomphilpott)

Two corn fields in Malawi, one fertilized, one not. Photo by john.duffell via Creative Commons/flickr.

Grist (http://www.grist.org/) is producing a must-read series on the role and impact of synthetic nitrogen in our lives: our food, our bodies, our soil, our waters. Nitrogen has always intrigued me, for as a farm kid it was the magic stuff we spread on grain crops and hay fields to make them grow. Without nitrogen we would have had no farm, no harvests, at least according to the practices preached and implemented in the 1950s and 60s.

But the nitrogen story is vastly more complex: that a material created a century ago by a couple of German scientists to build bombs (synthetic nitrogen fertilizer was used to blow up the Oklahoma City Federal Building) instead created a population bomb via the "Green Revolution." 

Canadian scientist Vaclav Smil has written that about 40 percent of humanity is alive today because of the food grown with synthetic nitrogen, all produced with fossil fuels. (One could say that not only do we depend on fossil fuels, we ARE fossil fuels.) Another synthetic nitrogen by-product: the more than 20 "dead zones" in bays, gulfs, and estuaries worldwide because of excess nitrogen runoff from industrial agriculture. The "hypoxic" or dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico below the Mississippi River delta is a prime example, as is the dying Chesapeake Bay.

http://www.grist.org/article/series/the-n2-dilemma-is-america-fertilizing-disaster

From Introduction to Grist Series: "...In the past 50 years, led by the United States, global agriculture has come to rely increasingly on a cheap, synthetic form of nitrogen produced in fertilizer factories that are powered by natural gas and other fossil fuels.

"Before World War II, when the fertilizer industry was in its infancy, farmers used very little synthetic nitrogen. By 1964, U.S. farmers were applying about 4.3 million tons annually. In 2007, the last year for which the U.S. Department of Agriculture has figures, farmers dropped 5.7 million tons on the nation's corn crop alone. We now know that the undeniable benefits of synthetic nitrogen come with serious costs, both to the environment and to public health..."

Part One: The Dark Side of Nitrogen
http://www.grist.org/article/2009-11-11-the-dark-side-of-nitrogen

Stephanie Ogburn: "...The amount of food a farmer could grow was once limited by his or her ability to supplement soil nitrogen, either by planting cover crops, applying manure, or moving on to a new, more fertile field. Then, about 100 years ago, a technical innovation enabled us to produce a cheap synthetic form of nitrogen, and voila! Agriculture's nitrogen limitation problem was solved.  The age of industrial nitrogen fertilizers had begun...."

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also see: A summary of recent articles and papers on role of nitrogen and its impact in environment:
Too Much of a Good Thing: Our Costly Nitrogen Fix (via @YaleE360 @seedmag @mitpress @naturenews @sciencemagazine)
http://ddimick.posterous.com/too-much-of-a-good-thing-our-costly-nitrogen

also see: Signs From Earth: After Borlaug: Another Green Revolution?
http://ddimick.typepad.com/dennis_dimicks_blog/2009/09/after-borlaug-a-new-green-revolution.html

also see: At Land Institute in Kansas, Prairie Pioneer Wes Jackson Seeks to Reinvent the Way We Farm (via @NPR)
http://ddimick.posterous.com/at-the-land-institute-in-kansas-prairie-pione

Richard Harris: "...The problem, Jackson explains, is that agriculture in most places is based on practices that use up limited resources. The major grains, like wheat and corn, are planted afresh each year. When the fields are later plowed, they lose soil. The soil that remains in these fields loses nitrogen and carbon..."

also see: Future Think: 2020 Visions: Researchers Look forward...(via @naturenews)
http://ddimick.posterous.com/future-think-2020-visions-researchers-look-fo

Soils: David Montgomery, University of Washington: "To avoid the mistakes of past societies, as 2020 approaches, the world must address global soil degradation, one of this century's most insidious and under-acknowledged challenges. Humanity has already degraded or eroded the topsoil off more than a third of all arable land. We continue to lose farmland at about 0.5% a year -- yet expect to feed more than 9 billion people later this century. During the twentieth century, the Haber-Bosch process (allowing the mass production of nitrogen-based fertilizers) and the Green Revolution effectively divorced agriculture from soil stewardship..."

also see: The End of Plenty: National Geographic June 2009
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/06/cheap-food/bourne-text

Below: Wheat Harvest, Struthers Farm, Washington State. The bounty of American and world agriculture since the end of World War II has been created in large part by the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer. Photo by Scott Butner from Creative Commons/flickr.

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Study: Amazon deforestation may offset biofuel carbon benefits (via PNAS)

A new study indicates that Amazon forest lands converted to cattle grazing, above, may offset carbon benefits realized from Brazil's ethanol and biodiesel plantations. Photo by leoffreitas from Creative Commons/flickr.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Indirect land-use changes can overcome carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil

PNAS: "The potential environmental detriment from expanding Brazilian biofuel plantations to meet the nation's targets for the "green" fuel's production may offset carbon emission reductions gained from biofuel use, according to researchers' predictions. David Lapola and colleagues applied a mathematical model to determine the impact of increasing Brazilian biofuel plantation area to meet the government's proposed 2020 biofuel production targets. The researchers found that the appropriation of pasture for biofuel crop growth needed to meet their future goals could push cattle ranching into the Amazon forest and Brazilian Cerrado savannah, which could create a carbon debt requiring approximately 250 years to repay through biofuel use. The authors recommend increasing livestock density on existing cattle ranch land as an alternative to native habitat deforestation, and suggest planting oil palm rather than other commonly cultivated biofuel crops to minimize carbon debt. The study may help governments and regulators create standards and initiatives to promote sustainable biofuel manufacture and use, according to the authors."

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/02/02/0907318107

From Abstract: "The planned expansion of biofuel plantations in Brazil could potentially cause both direct and indirect land-use changes (e.g., biofuel plantations replace rangelands, which replace forests). In this study, we use a spatially explicit model to project land-use changes caused by that expansion in 2020, assuming that ethanol (biodiesel) production increases by 35 (4) x 109 liter in the 2003-2020 period. Our simulations show that direct land-use changes will have a small impact on carbon emissions because most biofuel plantations would replace rangeland areas. However, indirect land-use changes, especially those pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests, could offset the carbon savings from biofuels. ..."

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Study: Urban population growth and agricultural trade drive deforestation (via @naturenews)

Forest converted to farmland, Matto Grosso, Brazil. A new study indicates that agricultural trade and urbanization drive deforestation, countering views that rural population growth primarily causes tropical forest loss. Photo by leoffreitas via Creative Commons/flickr.

Nature Geoscience: Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century 

"Reducing tropical deforestation is at present considered a cost-effective option for mitigating climate change. Satellite-based estimates of forest loss suggest that urban population growth and urban and international demand for agricultural products are key drivers of deforestation in the tropics."

Abstract: "Reducing atmospheric carbon emissions from tropical deforestation is at present considered a cost-effective option for mitigating climate change. However, the forces associated with tropical forest loss are uncertain1. Here we use satellite-based estimates of forest loss for 2000 to 2005...to assess economic, agricultural and demographic correlates across 41 countries in the humid tropics. Two methods of analysis--linear regression and regression tree--show that forest loss is positively correlated with urban population growth and exports of agricultural products for this time period. Rural population growth is not associated with forest loss, indicating the importance of urban-based and international demands for agricultural products as drivers of deforestation. The strong trend in movement of people to cities in the tropics is, counter-intuitively, likely to be associated with greater pressures for clearing tropical forests. We therefore suggest that policies to reduce deforestation among local, rural populations will not address the main cause of deforestation in the future. Rather, efforts need to focus on reducing deforestation for industrial-scale, export-oriented agricultural production, concomitant with efforts to increase yields in non-forested lands to satisfy demands for agricultural products."

also see: AFP: Urban growth, farm exports drive tropical deforestation

also see: MongaBay: Forest conservation via REDD may be ineffective without addressing commodity consumption, trade

Below: From NASA Earth Observatory, World of Change: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/deforestation.php
The state of Rondonia in western Brazil is one of the most deforested parts of the Amazon. This series shows deforestation on the frontier in the northwestern part of the state between 2000 and 2009. Picture below is 2009.
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Tibet Plateau: 'Roof of the world' getting warmer (via @guardianeco & @thedailyclimate)

Glacier- capped Mountains in Tibet. Jan. 2007: Via NASA Earth Observatory (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=41229)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2010-02/05/content_9431578.htm

(Ed. Note: It has been impossible to find an independent verification of this report. All roads lead back to the original news article in (state-run) China Daily. Repeated attempts to find a Lhasa regional climate center online to see the report cited always lead back to the original news item. If anyone has links to the research source material, please shout.)

"...The average temperature in the Tibet autonomous region was 5.9 C last year, 1.5 C higher than normal and a record high in almost four decades, latest figures from the regional climate center showed.

The 2009 climate report, issued by the center yesterday, was based on meteorological data collected from 38 observatories across Tibet, said project leader Zhang Hezhen, a specialist with the regional weather bureau..."

The Guardian: Tibet temperature "highest since records began" say Chinese climatologists

Scientific American: Tibet temperatures hit record high in 2009

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Climate Change: What to Make of the Extreme Floods in Cumbria? (via @FT)

Broughton Bridge, Workington, Cumbria. Nov. 2009. Photo by Horrgakx from Creative Commons/flickr.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/4cae3af6-112d-11df-a6d6-00144feab49a.html

""It is hard to know what to make of last November's floods in Cumbria. During the disaster, which cost one life, caused around #100m in damage, and flooded 1,500 homes - 885 of them in Cockermouth - public officials were quick to emphasise its extreme rarity. Standing by the fallen Northside Bridge in Workington, one of six to collapse across the county, Tony Cunningham, the local Labour MP, said the floods were of "biblical proportions"...

"...And yet, at the same time, for all their drama, the floods should not have come as much of a surprise. Twenty years ago, Britain's first climate change predictions told us we should prepare for drier summers and wetter winters, with more intense rainfall and flooding the likely consequences. While climate change does not create disasters out of nothing, Paul Davies, the chief forecaster at the Flood Forecasting Centre, told me that the Cumbrian floods were "entirely consistent with the climate change predictions for the UK". Warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more water vapour - 6 per cent more for every 1*C increase - and give it more energy, amplifying existing weather patterns...."

also see: Wettest Day on Record: UK's Cumbria flood areas braced for more rain (via @BBC)
http://ddimick.posterous.com/wettest-day-on-record-uks-cumbria-flood-areas

also see: Comment: "A climate deal is like trying to halt the rains in Cumbria" (via @guardianeco)
http://ddimick.posterous.com/comment-a-climate-deal-is-like-trying-to-halt

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No Mail Today: Deep Snow in Arlington VA Smothers Mailbox

Arlington, VA, February 6, 2010: No Mail Today: Deep snow from the heaviest snowstorm to hit the Washington DC area in decades brought the region to a stop. The heavy, wet snow, which accumulated two feet in some locations by Saturday morning, continued through the day Saturday. 5:30 p.m. EST: Photo by Dennis Dimick.

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BBC Poll: Climate scepticism 'on the rise' (via @BBC)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8500443.stm

"The number of British people who are sceptical about climate change is rising, a poll for BBC News suggests."

Link to survey PDF:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/05_02_10climatechange.pdf

Populous - Polling Company:
http://www.populus.co.uk/bbc-bbc-poll-on-climate-change-040210.html

also see: Not a Problem: American Concern about Climate Change Keeps Declining
http://ddimick.posterous.com/not-a-problem-american-concern-about-climate

also see: New Guide Confronts Epic Conundrum: How does the mind grasp climate change?
http://ddimick.posterous.com/new-guide-confronts-epic-conundrum-how-does-t

also see: Brookings Institution Survey: "The Climate of Belief: American Public Opinion on Climate Change"
http://ddimick.posterous.com/brookings-institution-survey-the-climate-of-b

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